There's an old saying in investing: “own gold and hope it doesn't go up”. Many investors view gold as an insurance against a market crisis. But is bitcoin digital gold when investors need protection?
The short answer: sometimes, but not always. Four major crises over the past six years show bitcoin has acted as both a risk asset and a safe haven. It depends on the type of crisis. Here's what the data shows.
The digital gold thesis
Bitcoin shares some of gold's core properties on paper. Both assets are scarce, durable, and independent of governments. Both can hedge against inflation and currency debasement. For a full comparison of the two, see our Bitcoin vs Gold guide.
One of gold's main roles in a portfolio is as a safe haven – an asset that may hold up in times of market stress. So if bitcoin really is digital gold, it should also hold up to that test.
Four market crises that tested the digital gold thesis
To compare bitcoin and gold fairly, we measured each asset at 1, 3, and 6 months after the start of each crisis. The chart below shows bitcoin and gold on a log scale, which makes big historical moves easier to see. All four crises are marked in grey.
Source: TradingView, as of 23 April 2023.
Past performance is no guide to future results.
COVID crash (started 20 February 2020): Global markets panicked as the pandemic shut down economies around the world. Central banks slashed interest rates and governments launched emergency stimulus programmes.
Russia-Ukraine war (started 24 February 2022): The biggest geopolitical shock since the Cold War. Inflation surged, energy prices spiked, and the Fed began an aggressive rate-hiking cycle.
Banking crisis (started 8 March 2023): Silvergate announced it was winding down on 8 March. Silicon Valley Bank collapsed two days later in a rapid deposit run. Then, Credit Suisse needed a UBS rescue the following week. Confidence in the traditional banking system took a knock.
Iran conflict (started 28 February 2026): US and Israeli airstrikes hit Iran. Iran has since started charging ships a de-facto toll for passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with payment accepted in crypto including bitcoin. The move lets Iran sidestep sanctions-linked banking scrutiny.
Here's how bitcoin and gold fared across all four crises at 1, 3, and 6 months from the start date.
Source: TradingView, as of 23 April 2023.
Past performance is no guide to future results.
Note: The Iran conflict is ongoing. Only the 1-month window has completed as of publication.
What the numbers tell us about bitcoin in a market crisis
Bitcoin outperformed gold during the 2023 banking crisis, rallying about 28% in the first month while gold rose 10%. That's a textbook test of the digital gold thesis, and bitcoin passed it on this occasion. Bitcoin was also up 25% at three months and 19% at six months, compared with 8% and 7% for gold.
Bitcoin also held up better than gold in the first month of the Iran conflict. It was down less than 1% by 28 March, while gold had already fallen over 14%. And the divergence has only grown since. As of 23 April, bitcoin has rallied 16% from 28 February, while gold is still down nearly 12%. So far, bitcoin has responded more like a safe haven than gold. The 3 and 6-month windows are still playing out.
But during the COVID crash and Russia-Ukraine, bitcoin lost far more than gold. Bitcoin fell 35% in the first month of COVID, while gold fell just 7%. Russia-Ukraine played out slower: bitcoin was down 23% at three months and 44% at six months, while gold moved just -2% and -8% over the same windows. Anyone who bought bitcoin as a pure hedge into either crisis would have felt the pain.
One more pattern stands out: bitcoin tends to recover faster than it falls. Three months after the COVID crash, bitcoin was down just 1%. Six months in, it was up 24%, roughly matching gold's 23% gain over the same window. Bitcoin is volatile, but the volatility can work in both directions.
So is bitcoin digital gold?
Not reliably. Across four major crises, bitcoin and gold only behaved similarly once – in the 2023 banking crisis, when both rallied. The other three times, they moved in different directions or by very different amounts.
The digital gold label captures some shared properties, but the behaviour in a crisis tells a different story. That said, two assets that move differently can balance each other in a portfolio. So bitcoin and gold may work better together than as substitutes.
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Frequently asked questions
Is bitcoin a safe haven asset? Bitcoin acted like a safe haven during the 2023 banking crisis, but didn't during the 2020 COVID crash or the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. Its safe-haven status may depend on the type of crisis.
Does bitcoin correlate with gold? Bitcoin and gold don't always move together. The two assets have diverged during major crises, with the correlation shifting based on what's driving market fear.
Is bitcoin better than gold as a crisis hedge? Neither is objectively better. Gold has a longer track record and tends to behave more predictably, while bitcoin may offer stronger upside but has been less consistent.
Key takeaways
Bitcoin shares some properties with gold, but doesn't always behave like gold in a crisis.
Bitcoin has acted like both a risk asset and a safe haven across four major crises since 2020.
Bitcoin and gold often move differently, which investors may want to consider when comparing the two.
